Casino Affiliate Earnings Calculator
Estimate what a casino affiliate site earns from its traffic, compare CPA, revenue share and hybrid deals on the same numbers, and see an indicative sale value. Enter your own figures from your analytics and programme dashboards. Every assumption is visible and editable.
Casino affiliate earnings & value estimator
Model CPA, revenue share and hybrid deals from your traffic and funnel, see how revenue share builds over time, and get an indicative sale value for the site.
How earnings build on a new site
Same traffic, three deal types
| CPA | Rev share | Hybrid |
|---|
CPA pays up front and stops. Revenue share pays less at first but keeps paying while players stay active, and that player base is what buyers pay a premium for.
Indicative sale value
A formula is a starting point, not a price. We value affiliate sites against comparable closed iGaming deals, after checking the figures against your programme statements and traffic data.
Estimates only, based entirely on the inputs above. Real earnings depend on programme terms, negative carryover, GEO, regulation, tracking accuracy and traffic quality. Not financial advice.
How the calculator works
The calculator follows the path a player takes from your page to an operator, then applies the commission terms of your deal. It works in three steps.
1. From visitors to first-time depositors
Most visitors never click an operator link, and most clicks never deposit. So the calculator uses two rates instead of one:
- Click-out rate: the share of visitors who click an operator link.
- Click-to-FTD rate: the share of those clicks that become a first-time depositor (FTD).
FTDs per month = monthly visitors × click-out rate × click-to-FTD rate
Both rates are in your affiliate dashboards (clicks and FTDs per programme) and your analytics (sessions). If the result means more than about 1 in 70 visitors deposits, the calculator flags it. A figure that high usually points to a tracking or input error.
2. Applying the deal terms
- CPA: a fixed payment per FTD. Monthly earnings = FTDs × CPA. It is paid once, so earnings track current traffic.
- Revenue share: a percentage of the net gaming revenue (NGR) each referred player generates, for as long as they play. Monthly earnings = NGR from all active referred players × revenue share %.
- Hybrid: a smaller CPA plus a smaller revenue share on the same player.
3. Why revenue share takes months to build
Each month's new players generate NGR in their first month, then less each month as some stop playing. The calculator models this with a monthly retention rate. Revenue share income therefore starts low and builds as player cohorts stack up.
Lifetime NGR per FTD = month-1 NGR ÷ (1 − monthly retention)
Mature monthly earnings = FTDs per month × lifetime NGR per FTD × revenue share %
At 60% retention, a new site gets within 10% of its mature revenue share income in about five months at flat traffic. An established site whose traffic has been stable for a year or more should already be close to the mature figure.
Worked example (calculator defaults)
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Monthly visitors | 10,000 |
| Click-out rate | 10% → 1,000 clicks |
| Click-to-FTD rate | 3% → 30 FTDs (1 in 333 visitors) |
| Month-1 NGR per player | €100 |
| Monthly retention | 60% → €250 lifetime NGR per FTD |
| Running costs | €500 / month |
| Deal | Terms | Month 1 | Mature, per month | Per FTD, lifetime |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPA | €100 per FTD | €3,000 | €3,000 | €100 |
| Revenue share | 35% of NGR | €1,050 | €2,625 | €88 |
| Hybrid | €50 + 20% of NGR | €2,100 | €3,000 | €100 |
These are illustrative inputs, not market averages. Replace them with your own figures.
From earnings to sale value
Buyers of casino affiliate sites pay a multiple of verified net profit, usually measured over the trailing 12 months. The calculator estimates that in three steps:
- Mature monthly earnings, minus monthly running costs (content, links, hosting, tools, staff), gives net profit.
- Net profit × 12 gives annual net profit.
- Annual net profit × a multiple gives the value range.
The multiple starts from a 2.5×–4.0× band of annual net profit, with 3.25× as the midpoint for an average site. It moves within that band on four factors:
| Factor | Moves the multiple up | Moves the multiple down |
|---|---|---|
| Deal type | Revenue share: the player base keeps paying after a sale, even if traffic dips | Pure CPA: income stops the month traffic stops |
| Operator concentration | No operator above 30% of revenue | One operator above 60%: a rate cut or a closed programme hits most of the income |
| Traffic source | Organic search spread across many pages | One page or keyword drives most traffic, or the traffic is paid or rented |
| Age and trend | 3+ years with growing earnings | Under a year old, or earnings declining |
In the worked example, the revenue share site makes €2,125 net profit a month, or €25,500 a year. With diversified organic traffic and moderate operator concentration, the calculator puts it at roughly €87,000–€100,000 (3.4×–4.0×).
What a formula cannot see
A buyer's due diligence will test points no calculator can price:
- Whether the deals transfer. Many programmes need operator consent to move an affiliate account, or the buyer must open new accounts. Revenue share players may not follow. This must be checked programme by programme.
- Negative carryover. Under some revenue share terms, a month where players win is deducted from future earnings.
- Tracking accuracy. Reported FTDs and NGR are checked against programme statements and payment receipts.
- Search exposure. This covers past Google updates, manual actions, and the quality of the link profile. A site built on PBN or purchased links carries penalty risk that lowers the multiple.
- Owner dependency. Hours per month, content production, and whether the operator relationships are personal.
- Regulatory exposure. Revenue from grey-market GEOs, or from markets where affiliate rules are tightening, is discounted. Rules change, so the current position in each market needs checking at the time of sale.
That is why we treat the calculator as a starting point. Our valuations compare your site with closed iGaming transactions, after checking your figures against programme statements and traffic data. See our methodology.
CPA or revenue share: which builds more value?
CPA earns more in the first months and is simpler to verify. Revenue share earns less at first but builds a player base that keeps paying, and buyers value that recurring income more highly.
The trade-off depends on retention. If players churn quickly, a good CPA often beats revenue share on lifetime value. In the worked example, CPA pays €100 per FTD against €88 from revenue share. If retention is high, revenue share pulls ahead and the site is more resilient to a traffic drop. Many established sites run a mix: CPA in GEOs with weak retention, revenue share where players stay. Use the comparison table in the calculator to test your own numbers.
Terms used in the calculator
- FTD (first-time depositor)
- A referred player who makes their first real-money deposit. Most CPA deals pay on FTD, often with a minimum deposit or wagering condition.
- NGR (net gaming revenue)
- What the operator keeps from a player after winnings, bonuses and, depending on the programme, taxes and fees. Revenue share is calculated on NGR.
- Revenue share
- A percentage of the NGR from players you referred, paid for as long as they stay active.
- CPA (cost per acquisition)
- A one-off fixed payment per qualifying FTD.
- Hybrid
- A deal combining a lower CPA with a lower revenue share on the same player.
- Monthly retention
- The share of a player cohort's NGR that carries into the next month. Higher retention means higher lifetime value per player.
- Programme deductions
- Admin fees or other costs a programme deducts from NGR before calculating your share.
- Negative carryover
- A revenue share term where a negative month (players win more than they lose) is carried forward and deducted from future earnings.
- Earnings per 1,000 visitors
- Mature monthly earnings divided by monthly visitors, × 1,000. A quick way to compare sites of different sizes.
Frequently asked questions
How do I calculate casino affiliate earnings?
Multiply monthly visitors by your click-out rate and your click-to-FTD rate to get first-time depositors per month. For CPA, multiply FTDs by the CPA. For revenue share, multiply FTDs by the lifetime NGR per player and your revenue share percentage. Lifetime NGR per player is month-1 NGR ÷ (1 − monthly retention).
Is CPA or revenue share better for a casino affiliate?
CPA pays more up front and stops when traffic stops. Revenue share starts lower but builds recurring income from players who keep playing. Where player retention is high, revenue share usually earns more over a player's lifetime and gives the site a higher sale multiple.
How long does revenue share income take to build up?
It depends on player retention. At 60% monthly retention, a new site reaches about 90% of its mature revenue share income in around five months at flat traffic. Higher retention takes longer to mature but reaches a higher level.
How are casino affiliate websites valued?
Mostly as a multiple of verified annual net profit, usually measured over the trailing 12 months. In this calculator the multiple runs from 2.5× to 4.0×, with 3.25× as the midpoint for an average site. It is adjusted for deal type, operator concentration, traffic source, and the site's age and trend. A broker valuation also checks the figures against programme statements and compares the site with closed transactions.
Do affiliate deals transfer when a site is sold?
Not automatically. Many programmes require operator approval to transfer an affiliate account, and some require the buyer to open new accounts. Whether existing revenue share players move with the sale depends on each programme's terms, so this is checked programme by programme in due diligence.
Is the calculator's result a valuation?
No. It is an estimate based only on the figures you enter. A valuation that a buyer will pay against needs verified earnings, traffic data, programme terms and comparable closed deals.
Get a valuation based on closed deals
If you are thinking of selling a casino or sportsbook affiliate site, we will value it against comparable closed iGaming transactions and tell you what a buyer is likely to pay. That includes what would move the price. We work with a network of 1,000+ qualified buyers.
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