GGR Tax Hikes in 2026: What They Do to Online Casino Valuations

The short answer

A gaming tax is charged on GGR, so every rate rise comes straight off EBITDA. In 2026 the UK nearly doubled its online casino duty from 21% to 40%, the Netherlands moved to 37.8%, Bulgaria to 25%, and Brazil and Malta started stepping their rates up.

The result: two casinos with the same GGR can now be worth very different amounts. A GGR multiple only compares assets with the same tax and cost structure. That is why an operator should be valued on run-rate EBITDA at the tax rates that will apply after closing, not on trailing GGR.

This guide sets out the 2025–2026 changes, shows the maths on a worked example, and lists what buyers check and what sellers should prepare.

GGR, NGR and EBITDA: where the tax sits

Gaming tax is usually the largest cost an operator pays after its players are paid. Where it sits in the P&L decides how much a rate change moves the valuation.

Most regulated markets tax GGR: the UK charges Remote Gaming Duty on gross gaming yield (stakes minus winnings), and Brazil and the Netherlands also tax gross gaming revenue. Germany is the main exception, taxing online slot stakes rather than revenue.

Two things follow. First, a tax charged on GGR does not shrink when margins shrink, so it hits low-margin operators hardest. Second, the NGR figure in a seller’s P&L or an affiliate contract may or may not be after tax. Always check the definition before applying any multiple to it.

The GGR tax changes that matter for deals

Seven markets have raised or restructured their online gaming tax since mid-2025, and further steps are already legislated for 2027–2028. Rates below are on GGR unless stated.

Three points for anyone pricing an asset:

• The UK is the big one. It is Europe’s largest online market, and the 40% rate puts it at the top of Europe’s online casino tax table. A UK sportsbook faces a second step in April 2027.
• Malta’s change is narrow. The new rates apply only to players who are in or resident in Malta. An MGA-licensed operator serving players elsewhere is taxed in those players’ markets, not in Malta. Malta also narrowed its gambling VAT exemption from the same date, which is a separate cost to check.
• Not every market is moving up. Estonia is cutting its remote gambling tax from 6% to 4% in annual steps. Italy holds at 25.5% for online casino.

Tax rates change at short notice. Verify the current rate with a local tax adviser before you rely on any figure in this table.

Worked example: same GGR, different value

On the same GGR, the UK duty rise cuts this illustrative casino’s value by about two-thirds before mitigation and by about one-third if half the extra duty is recovered.

Assumptions, for illustration only: a UK-facing online casino with EUR 2.0m annual GGR, EUR 1.0m of operating costs excluding duty (bonuses, game-provider and platform fees, payments, marketing, staff), valued at an assumed 3.0x EBITDA. The multiple is held constant so that only the tax changes.

The last two rows are the point. A seller who quotes a 0.87x GGR multiple from a pre-2026 UK deal is asking a buyer to pay nearly three times what the post-tax earnings support.

The 50% mitigation case is not arbitrary. Evoke reported offsetting more than half of its gross duty increase in H1 2026 through leaner marketing, tighter promotions and cost cuts. Entain targets offsetting about 25% of the UK increase in 2026 and more than 50% from 2027. Smaller operators rarely have the same scale levers, so a buyer will want to see mitigation in the monthly numbers before paying for it.

The illustration is deliberately simple. Bonus treatment under the duty, provider fees charged as a share of GGR, and player churn after promotions are cut all change the real figures.

How buyers price tax risk in diligence

A buyer’s first job is to rebuild the P&L at the tax rates that will apply after closing. Trailing twelve months is not enough: for a UK casino, any twelve-month window ending before April 2027 still includes months taxed at 21%.

What a well-run buy-side diligence now covers:

1. GGR by player jurisdiction. Most taxes are charged where the player is, not where the licence is. A split of GGR by country is the only way to apply the right rate to each slice.
2. Tax returns reconciled to platform reports. Duty paid should match the GGR in the back office for the same period. Gaps point to misreported revenue or unpaid tax.
3. Scheduled increases. A sportsbook with UK players faces 25% from April 2027. A Brazilian licensee steps to 14% in 2027 and 15% in 2028. These go into the forecast, not a footnote.
4. Evidence of mitigation. Buyers pay for mitigation already visible in the numbers: lower bonus cost as a share of GGR, better marketing efficiency, cost savings. Planned mitigation is a discussion, not a price.
5. Player retention after the change. When promotions are cut, some players leave, sometimes for unlicensed sites. Monthly cohorts of depositing players before and after the change show whether revenue held.
6. The NGR definition in affiliate and B2B contracts. Many operator affiliate programmes deduct gaming duty before calculating revenue share. Higher duty can cut affiliate income even when traffic is flat.

Tax exposure also shapes the deal structure. Expect buyers to ask for earnouts measured on post-tax EBITDA, a price adjustment if a rate change is announced between signing and closing, and a tax indemnity covering pre-closing periods. A tax adviser should confirm how any indemnity and escrow are drafted.

What sellers should prepare before going to market

Restate your own numbers before a buyer does it for you. A buyer who finds the tax gap in diligence will re-price the whole deal; a seller who shows it up front keeps control of the story.

• Restate the last 12–24 months of EBITDA at the current tax rate, month by month, next to the reported figures.
• Split GGR and NGR by player country, with the tax rate applied to each.
• Reconcile duty returns to platform GGR reports for the same periods, and keep the filings in the data room.
• Show the mitigation already delivered since the change: bonus cost, marketing spend and margin by month.
• Add any legislated future step (UK betting 2027, Brazil 2027–2028) to the forecast.
• State the NGR definition used in the P&L and in each affiliate or B2B contract.

Timing matters too. An asset that can show two or three full quarters at the new rate, with margins stable, is easier to sell than one asking buyers to trust a projection. If those quarters are weak, it is usually better to know before the teaser goes out than to learn it from the first LOI.

FAQ

What is GGR in online gambling?

Gross gaming revenue is the total amount players stake minus the winnings paid back to them. It is the operator’s revenue before bonuses, taxes and operating costs.

What is the difference between GGR and NGR?

NGR is GGR minus bonus cost and, in most definitions, gaming taxes and levies. There is no single standard, so the definition in each P&L or contract has to be checked.

Are gaming taxes charged on GGR or NGR?

Most regulated markets tax GGR or an equivalent: UK Remote Gaming Duty is charged on gross gaming yield, and Brazil and the Netherlands tax gross gaming revenue. Germany taxes online slot stakes instead.

How much did the UK gaming tax rise in 2026?

Remote Gaming Duty on online casino, slots and bingo rose from 21% to 40% on 1 April 2026. Remote betting duty rises from 15% to 25% on 1 April 2027, with UK horse racing kept at 15%.

Does a higher GGR tax lower an online casino’s valuation?

Yes, when the value is based on earnings. The tax comes off before EBITDA, so the same GGR produces less profit. A headline GGR multiple from a lower-tax period or market will overstate the value.

Do GGR tax rises affect affiliate websites?

Often, yes. Many revenue-share deals pay on NGR after gaming duty, so higher duty cuts commission even if player numbers hold. CPA deals are less exposed, but operators may cut CPA rates to protect margin.

Should I sell before or after a tax change?

Buyers price the tax that applies after closing either way. Selling early rarely avoids it; selling after two or three clean quarters at the new rate usually gives buyers more confidence in the numbers.

Selling or buying an operator in a higher-tax market?

We value online casinos, sportsbooks and affiliate portfolios on the numbers that will apply after closing, and match them with our network of 1,000+ qualified buyers. For a confidential, tax-adjusted view of what your asset is worth, email gabriel@casinosbroker.com.

This article is commercial commentary, not tax or legal advice. Gambling tax rates and their scope change often; confirm the rate that applies to your business with a qualified tax adviser in each market.